As we head into the 2026 presidential election period, there is general agreement that the Barrow administration is inept and continues to poorly manage the affairs of The Gambia with exceedingly high prices, high unemployment rates and failure across the board exacerbated by inadequate or dysfunctional institutions, and rampant corruption.
As an incumbent, which is a clear advantage in African elections, the debate naturally is centered around the issue of the best strategy to adopt in that quest of ending his attempt at self-perpetuation despite his innumerable failures.
In 2016, the seemingly impossible feat of defeating an African incumbent was accomplished through a coalition of the parties and candidates vying for the presidency. A similar approach is being proposed.
With a simple majority, first past the post system of elections, a divided opposition means enhanced chances for the incumbent, who actually is propped up by a ‘coalition of absorption’ in that hopeless and experimental parties allied with him after failing in their individual bids in return for coveted government positions.
Hope was reposed in the main opposition party, the United Democratic Party (UDP) as having the best chance of defeating the incumbent based on their past performance records. That hope was based on the expectation that the longtime leader of the UDP, Ousainu Darboe, will step aside and the party will unveil a new flagbearer for 2026. There were many aspirants within the UDP, so naturally there emerged a power struggle of sorts and when Mr. Darboe declared his desire to seek the presidency and applied to be the UDP flagbearer, there was a breakaway of candidates who were aspiring to the same position but felt UDP is too loyal to Mr. Darboe to consider another candidate.
The most notable being Mayor of the Kanifing Municipality Talib Ahmed Bensouda. His departure was notable because many who believed UDP was on the cusp of changing leadership saw him as the potential step-in candidate. With his breakaway and emerging new political movement, he heads, the debate now is centered around “winnability.”
The argument is that UDP’s best chance was to present Mr. Bensouda as their candidate for 2026 because he won two mayoral elections and is seen as a candidate who can reach across the proverbial aisle to voters who would otherwise never consider voting for UDP, ergo the designation of winnable candidate.
This is contrasted against the record of Mr. Darboe, who they cite as having lost several election bids against Jammeh and most recently the 2021 bid against Barrow. This is the only explanation given regarding his winnability. His qualifications, experience, sacrifice, and character are not in question. It is argued that he lost several times before, this is not expected to be any different.
What gets left out of that assessment is the environment within which past elections were conducted.
We all understand fully how repressive the political environment was under Jammeh, an authoritarian.
Until 2016, votes were never counted where they were cast, the ballots get transported to counting centers by military vehicles and no election officials, observers, returning officers, or party representatives were allowed to accompany the ballots. Suffice to say, the military was an extended arm of Jammeh’s political movement.
With that repressive environment in mind, I asked Copilot to summarize the conclusions reached by election observers of presidential elections in The Gambia from 1996 to 2016. Here is the result.
“Election observers of Gambian presidential elections (1996–2016) consistently highlighted problems of fairness, repression, and lack of a level playing field under Yahya Jammeh’s rule, though they noted improvements in organization and voter participation. The 2016 election was the first widely recognized as a genuine reflection of the people’s will, despite Jammeh’s later rejection of the results.” – Copilot summary
It then went on to give a summary of observations made in every election as laid out below.
1996 Presidential Election
- Observers’ conclusions: The election was not free or fair.
- Issues raised:
- Severe restrictions on opposition parties (pre-1994 parties banned).
- Crackdowns on journalists and opposition leaders.
- Reports of fraud and intimidation.
- Overall judgment: The process lacked credibility despite high voter turnout.
🗳️ 2001 Presidential Election
- Observers’ conclusions: The election was marred by irregularities and repression.
- Issues raised:
- Pre-election violence, including the killing of an opposition supporter.
- Expulsion of foreign diplomats attending opposition rallies.
- Commonwealth observers noted organizational improvements but stressed intimidation and lack of media balance.
- Overall judgment: The vote was compromised by violence and state interference.
🗳️ 2006 Presidential Election
- Observers’ conclusions: The election was well-organized on polling day but not conducted on a level playing field.
- Issues raised:
- Heavy use of incumbency advantages by Jammeh.
- Widespread voter intimidation reported by opposition.
- Commonwealth observers acknowledged peaceful voting but criticized lack of fairness.
- Overall judgment: Technically sound election day, but politically skewed environment.
🗳️ 2011 Presidential Election
- Observers’ conclusions: Mixed assessments.
- Issues raised:
- African Union observers praised the peaceful and orderly process.
- ECOWAS refused to send observers, citing repression, media control, and intimidation.
- Commonwealth observers noted good organization but urged urgent democratic reforms.
- Overall judgment: Peaceful voting but fundamentally unfair political environment.
🗳️ 2016 Presidential Election
- Observers’ conclusions: The election was a genuine reflection of the people’s will.
- Issues raised:
- Human Rights Watch documented pre-election repression, arrests, and intimidation.
- Despite this, the Independent Electoral Commission ensured transparent counting at polling stations.
- Adama Barrow’s victory was recognized internationally as legitimate.
- Overall judgment: Marked a historic democratic breakthrough, though Jammeh’s later rejection triggered a constitutional crisis resolved by ECOWAS intervention
Overall Pattern (1996–2016)
- 1996–2011: Elections were consistently judged as flawed, repressive, and lacking fairness, despite orderly polling procedures.
- 2016: First election broadly recognized as credible and democratic, ending Jammeh’s 22-year rule.
Essentially, the argument on winnability is a subjective observation. No one should be faulted for having a preference of one candidate over another based on their own observations in a multi-party democracy. To which end, the best approach is to show the other side what convinced you to align with the choice you aligned with and hope to sway them.
But making generalized conclusions without offering the full context is also making a flawed argument.
Mankajang 