What really is UMC’s messaging strategy?

After Jammeh lied to The Gambians that they were “soldiers with a difference” who came to restore sanity in public service and return to barracks, he reneged on his promises, promoted himself to colonel in the army and resigned to present himself as a civilian aspirant for the presidency.

He thought he had planned his entrance into politics well after he banned all but one of the political parties from the first republic as well as individual politicians. He lied that the reason for the ban was motivated by the fact that such parties and officials were complicit in the “rampant corruption” that the soldiers came to rid the Gambia of and so they cannot be a part of the fix.

As time would reveal, his motive was to boost his own chances by not having to go against seasoned politicians. What he did not anticipate was the birth of a new party that would be popular with the people.

That party, the United Democratic Party (UDP) was showing all the signs that they could defeat Jammeh at the polls, so the soldiers resorted to what their first instinct always dictates; striking fear into one’s opponent as a first measure.

Intimidation, open hostility, and abuse of opposition sympathizers was the norm, and it defined the one month long political season of 1996.

When the dust settled, Jammeh was returned to power as president with a five new year mandate. Sensing that the UDP was a formidable force and seeking to gain approval as a democratic head of state, he knew violent conduct was not the best strategy to contain the new opponent, he needed a new plan.

Knowing that the UDP was a coming together of the political forces of the banned parties, he sought to weaken it through disintegration. He lifted the ban on all parties that were previously banned, expecting them to claim their loyalists and weaken the UDP as a result, a fractured opposition meant more solid footing for him as incumbent.

When the next election cycle came in 2001, what he anticipated did not happen. Lifting the ban on the former ruling People’s Progressive Party (PPP) did not weaken the UDP as they could not claim many of their members back. Lifting the ban on the main opposition party of that era, the National Convention Party (NCP) amounted to nothing as even more of their former loyalists remained with the new party. UDP was still formidable and did as well as they did in the previous cycle.

In his mind, 2006 would have to be different, it was clear he could not wish UDP away through his plots and schemes. He was ready to play even dirtier politics for that cycle because he knew by this time that the only party that counted as a threat was UDP. Add to that the fact that there were plans to unite the opposition, including the UDP.

Even though that project failed, he still saw the threat UDP posed. He did not feel as much threat from the other parties.

Hamat Bah and his National Reconciliation Party (NRP) were still in the game, but Jammeh and most of the voters saw him as a clownish politician after he showed up to State House following the announcement of the 1996 results to congratulate Jammeh but also to fulfill his promise to his supporters that come the day after elections, he would be at State House drinking tea as the new president. Only he was not president, but he showed up to fulfill the “drinking tea” part of his promise. With that gesture, it was clear he was more comical than a political threat.

The other main party, The People’s Democratic Organization for Independence and Socialism (PDOIS) did not make much headway in terms of votes, they still hovered around 3% both in 1996 and 200, as they did in the first republic.

So, the only opponent of note was the UDP and Jammeh was taking no chances with them. That was when he unleashed the beast of tribalism onto our political scene. You will struggle to find a video or audio of Jammeh mentioning tribe in an antagonistic way prior to the 2006 election cycle except for when he berated his own tribe that many saw as him being a motivator.

By branding the UDP as a Mandinka party that was angry at him for ending Jawara’s Mandinka government and loathed him because he is Jola, he found his sweet spot in political framing. From that period, up to his ouster in 2016, he only escalated the tribal rhetoric up to and including threats of extermination and mass expulsion of the Mandinka because they were the “enemies of everyone else.”.

 As he was ramping up the rhetoric, UDP’s passive strategy of not engaging him or effectively pushing back on the issue only made things worse, because he succeeded in framing an image of the party that was bought into. Repeat a lie enough times and it becomes truth.

It is hard to rebrand yourself from such a sustained assault on your image. So emerged the image of UDP being synonymous with tribalism.

Accusations of tribalism as it is directed against the UDP can only mean one thing; “Mandinka hegemony” because from the composition of the party’s national leadership, the diversity of its supporters, to the policies they advocate for, there is not a single shred of evidence that the party is for or against any particular tribe, ethnic group, or religious sect/denomination, or that any of their policies, if implemented, will adversely affect anyone who is not a Mandinka. What is obvious however, is that the Mandinka constitute the dominant ethnic group that forms the party’s support base. But that demographic constitution is no different from the national outlook in that Mandinka is the dominant ethnic group in The Gambia.

Similarly, other political parties  are obviously dominated by people who share the same ethnic identity as the party leader, in fact Jammeh enjoyed 100% support in his native Foni in the sense that the region, dominated by his Jola ethnic group, was declared a ‘no oppose zone’ and remained so throughout his tenure as president. All five constituencies barred opposition rallies and never allowed any other party to field candidates there. That was never branded as tribalism. Hamat Bah, a Fulani, heads the NRP and his party’s dominant ethnic group is Fulani, the same is true for Mama Kandeh. In fact, very recently, Saikou Mballow, a presidential adviser in addressing a gathering of non-Gambians who happen to share his Fulani ethnicity, told them to feel at home in The Gambia because they have nothing to fear since all relevant authority figures share the same ethnicity as them. That even the President identifies as Fulani because his mother is Fulani, he received very little condemnation. Contrast that to the early days of the Barrow administration when people were making head counts as to how many people appointed to high profile positions were Mandinka because in those early days, the government was “a UDP government” implying that we need to be on the lookout for that Mandinka hegemony that they made the UDP synonymous with.  

Politics thrives on sentiment, and perception is reality. Where everyone is guilty of the same issue, if they make a concerted effort to sanitize themselves while villainizing you, that becomes the reality that people see and make it your identity. Policy disagreements aside, this is what ailed the UDP’s image all this time. And UMC, it seems, is poised to carry that baton forward, at least as far as their messaging thus far reads. If it ain’t broke, why fix it?

And I do not think it is coincidence. People born between 2004 and 2008 will be eligible to vote this coming election cycle, they know nothing of what transpired in the Gambia under Jammeh and the challenges that were faced. In fact, I dare say anyone under 40, unless very active politically, falls into that category of being ill-informed of the past.

With the exception of those politically active youths, the image of UDP that Yaya Jammeh built is what many bought into, and the toxic social media environment affirms that for those only swayed by headlines. This is not to say there are no mischief-makers within the UDP whose actions serve to affirm certain views, but the same is true for all sides of the political divide.

To hold sway over such potential voters, then maintaining the narrative and image of the UDP as the villain and boogey man of Gambian politics could yield very high dividends.

And that, I believe, is one of the strategies of the newly registered Unite Movement for Change. When they broke away from UDP, it was clear they could not eat into the party’s loyal base and had to look elsewhere for support that counts. Protest voters from the previous election are the most obvious, but new voters coming of age also hold potential, denying UDP of any significant appeal in that segment would be a good strategy for any political outfit. But how do you effectively keep those young people away from being swept by the party that enjoys the largest and most loyal support base and is the most structured?

Well, there was a formula that seemed to work. What Jammeh built is not broken, so why not utilize it?

After he was dismissed by many as being out of touch with the reality of ordinary Gambians and therefore will not be an effective mayor, Talib proved the naysayers wrong by not only being effective, but innovative. He grew on those who initially counted him off when UDP first presented him. By his second term, they sought to make him distinct from the UDP. Some claim that he does not “belong in that camp” and that he does not represent the outlook of a typical UDP member, or that his values are misaligned with UDP values.

Now, I am not going to as far as speculating that Talib had a hand in that image building, he was a successful mayor, innovative, and charismatic. That positioned him well for leadership, which is undeniable. On his part also, he remained respectful and cordial throughout. But if one has an eye for politics, one cannot fail but notice that political capital was being built around his image and record. The sinister part of that image building was the claim that fielding a Mandinka against Barrow in 2026 would mean certain defeat for the UDP. That injection of tribe into the mix was a trigger.

When it was clear UDP would not select him to be the standard bearer of the party and the eventual fallout with UDP happened, he broke away with a handful of officials and supporters of the party to form the Unite Movement for Change.

To those who claimed he never belonged in the UDP, it was a moment of vindication, and the image of UDP being intolerant of anyone not Mandinka, (or Mandinka enough), picked up steam and was a good selling point if the goal was to demonize the party.

Increasingly, one can see the rhetorical device of apophasis being employed in their messaging, not so subtly in fact. Case in point is a post by an anonymous profile that many find distasteful being tied to the UDP as if the party officially sanctioned or endorsed such behavior clearly framed in a way that would rile up Christians to make them feel offended by UDP and what they want to portray as being all about.

By branding themselves as unifiers who shun tribalism and politics of exclusion, the implied message is that they broke away from the parent party they were a part of because that party represents what they are against; divide Gambians along tribal lines and install a Mandinka hegemony that excludes everyone else.

One can make very compelling arguments on why the UDP needs a different candidate for 2026, or even have objections on the party’s selection process, or why rejecting Talib’s bid was a bad strategic move politically. I understood that, and I understood some of the frustrations our efforts met as a party. So, I respected people who felt they could not take it anymore and sought a different path they believed would earn the country the elusive change we all seek. Even though I disagreed, I have friends and cherished relations who joined the project, I understood their frustrations, but I decided to stay in UDP and deliberately chose to let them put their theory and strategies to work and see what their efforts earn them and the country by extension.

But in the larger scheme of things, if the strategy to win over voters and sway new ones is by framing the argument along the lines of  villainizing the UDP by branding it as being an exclusively Mandinka party, that is reengineering the anti-Mandinka sentiment.

With the current messaging strategy, what we are hearing is ‘support the Movement that Unites all regardless of tribe and shun the one that is exclusively for one tribe!’  That will only breed more animosity and division, and we will all be worse for it.

Although each side can find justification for explaining their positions, I hope those who felt unwanted and unwelcome in the UDP leading to their exit, and those in UDP who view them as having betrayed the party, can rise above such sentiments, stop trading jabs, and focus on the bigger picture of removing Barrow.